Bangladesh’s interim administration has its work cut out. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus (second from left in photo), who was appointed chief adviser to the government, hailed the fall of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina as the “second liberation” of Bangladesh. But the country continues to be plagued by the same violence that led Sheikh Hasina to flee to India on August 5.
The interim administration, formed on August 8, has not yet been able to quell the unrest that began more than a month ago. Ominously, the violence threatens the country’s Hindu minority.
Sheikh Hasina had good relations with India and many Hindus in Bangladesh were supporters of her Awami League party, says Al Jazeera.
Precarious situation
“The situation will remain precarious in the next few weeks. We see a high risk that intermittent violence will continue, particularly against religious minorities,” says Kalyani Honrao, analyst, Asia, for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“Restoring law and order will be challenging for the caretaker government, especially as religious tensions intensify. An influx of refugees at the Bangladesh-India border could also be a flashpoint between India and the new government, especially if Mr Yunus struggles to address violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.”
The government has to ensure the safety of the Hindu minority and Indian businesses operating in Bangladesh, given the importance of diplomatic ties with India. But this will be difficult, says Honrao in her Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report.
Law and order
Law and order has become difficult to maintain with the police demoralized, fearing public reprisals after being used by Hasina against her opponents. More than 300 people were killed in unrest that started in July with protests against a quota system for government jobs that morphed into a movement to bring down Hasina. Nearly 100 people lost their lives on August 4 alone, the day before Hasina fled on a helicopter to Delhi.
“Police have abandoned their posts amid a wave of retaliatory attacks, resulting in jailbreaks and fears of home invasions,” says the Financial Times. People are taking law and order into their own hands, it notes.
Economy in peril
The violence spells grave danger to the economy. It threatens transport networks and factory production. Especially damaging will be any disruption to the garment industry, which accounts for about 85 per cent of Bangladesh’s total exports. Investments, too, may dwindle in a climate of insecurity.
Bangladesh’s policymaking, judicial and law enforcement agencies “remain more or less paralyzed”, says the Economist Intelligence report.
The report points out that the unrest could also deprive Bangladesh of international aid.
The IMF approved a total loan of $4.7 billion to Bangladesh in January 2023.
As of August 2024, the IMF has released $1.15 billion as the third instalment of this loan package after disbursing more than $1 billion earlier.
Under the aid package terms, Bangladesh must tighten monetary policy and carry out structural reforms to enhance trade, improve the investment climate, and increase women’s participation in the labour force.
However, the government may not be able to carry out the reforms in the present climate. “That could have consequences for the disbursement of those funds,” says the Economist Intelligence Unit report.
My best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus on the assumption of his new responsibilities. We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities. India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the…
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) August 8, 2024
Absolute honor to meet H.E. Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh at the Oath Taking Ceremony at the Presidential Palace Yesterday. pic.twitter.com/c8XXOcDbYS
— Pakistan High Commission Bangladesh (@PakinBangladesh) August 9, 2024
What the government says
The government says it is working to resolve attacks on Hindus and other religious minorities.
“The attacks on religious minorities in some places have been noted with grave concern,” the interim cabinet said in an official statement.
There were protests and rallies in the city of Bogra on Sunday (August 11), “demanding swift justice, compensation, and an end to the violence against Hindu communities, including attacks on homes, temple vandalism, arson, looting, and intimidation across the country”, reported the Dhaka Tribune newspaper.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while conveying his good wishes to Bangladesh’s new interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, urged him to ensure the “safety and protection” of the minorities in Bangladesh.