Don’t replace Biden, says historian who predicted winners of 9 of the 10 last White House races

Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the winners of nine of the 10 most recent U.S. presidential elections, has warned the Democrats. They could lose the November election if they replaced President Joe Biden, he said.

Lichtman, a professor at American University, dismissed calls to replace Biden after his poor debate performance last week against ex-president Donald Trump. Some Democrats are asking whether the 81-year-old president is fit to serve a second term.

Lichtman brushed aside their concern. “It’s a huge mistake. They’re not doctors. They don’t know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not,” he said in an interview with CNN.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, except 2000—and even that, he didn’t get completely wrong. Al Gore did win the popular vote that year, as he predicted. But George Bush was elected president because he won 271 electoral votes—one more than the required number. Gore got 266.

13 keys to the White House

Historian Allan Lichtman makes his predictions based on 13 factors, or what he calls “keys”, reports USA Today. According to him, the ruling party needs to lose six of those keys to lose the White House.

The keys range from the president’s personality and performance to the state of the economy and the nation.

However, the president’s and his rivals’ performance in a debate is not one of the keys.

Lichtman pointed out Ronald Reagan won 49 of the 50 states in 1984 despite poor debate performances and concern over his age.

“Debate performances can be overcome,” he said. “At the first sign of adversity, the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness.”

He warned Democrats against replacing Biden, but one thing should be borne in mind.

Lichtman has not yet predicted the 2024 presidential election result.

So, let’s examine his 13 keys to predicting who will win or lose the U.S. presidential election.

Lichtman came up with the keys with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

Each key addresses a question about some aspect of the nation, economy, administration and the election candidates.

Study the keys

If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the party in power at the White House is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false,  the ruling party is predicted to lose.

Here are the 13 keys.

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the ruling party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the ruling party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The ruling party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The administration makes major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no prolonged social unrest.
9. No scandal: The administration is not rocked by scandal.
10. No foreign/military failure: The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign/military success: The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The ruling party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Consider those 13 statements or keys. According to Lichtman, if five or fewer are false, Biden wins. If six or more are false, Biden loses. Tricky? Remember Lichtman has not made his prediction yet.