Donald Trump became only the second American president to return to power after losing an election — a feat pulled off only by Grover Cleveland in 1893. Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, called it “the greatest political comeback in US history”, but many people saw it coming — from Elon Musk, who spent millions supporting him, to Jeff Bezos, who didn’t allow The Washington Post to endorse Kamala Harris, to the punters whose smart money was on Trump.
Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris for three reasons: People were feeling the pinch of inflation; they were alarmed and angry about the flood of undocumented immigrants pouring into the country; and some of the people who normally support the Democrats voted for Trump instead of Harris.
Analysts were speculating before Election Day (November 5) about Harris losing support among Black men and young men drawn to Trump. Former president Barack Obama admonished Black men, urging them to vote for Harris. In the event, Harris suffered only a slight drop in Black support compared with former President Joe Biden, down from 87% to 85%, according to CNN exit polls. (The validated 2020 election results show Biden won 92% of the Black vote and Trump only 8%, but we will stick to exit polls for comparison as those are the ones available for 2024). But there was a significant drop in youth support, down from 60% for Biden to 54% for Harris among voters aged 18 to 29.
Drop in Latino support
However, what most hurt Harris was the sharp decline in Latino, or Hispanic, support, down from 65% for Biden to 52% for Harris, according to the same exit polls.
Harris could not expect to win the majority of white voters. No Democrat has won even 50% of the white voters in the last 50 years. Jimmy Carter racked up the biggest white vote (47%) in 1976 followed by Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008 — both got 43%. Biden secured 41% of the white vote, according to the CNN exit polls (and 43%, according to the validated 2020 election results.) Yet, though all four were supported by only a minority of white voters — who formed the largest electoral group — they were elected president because they were backed by others, such as the Blacks, Latinos and Asians.
Harris won 41% of the white vote, the same as Biden, according to the exit polls. Whites made up 71% of the voters, according to the CNN exit polls, which showed Blacks constituted 11%, Latinos 12%, and the Asians and others 3% each.
Harris could have won even with a minority white vote like Biden, Obama, Clinton and Carter if she had greater support from the other communities.
Unfortunately for her, she did not do as well as Biden, even among the non-whites. She was supported by 85% of the Blacks, 52% of the Latinos, 54% of the Asians, and 42% of the others. Biden, on the other hand, was backed by 87% of the Blacks, 65% of the Latinos, 61% of the Asians and 55% of the others, according to the exit polls. The drop in Latino support was especially damaging for Harris as they made up 12% of the voters, more than the Blacks.
Latinos not a monolithic voting bloc
Many thought Puerto Rico being called a “floating island of garbage” by a speaker at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden would outrage Latinos. But Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc. The Cuban Americans in Florida have been Republicans for a long time. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, newly elected Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio all have Latino roots.
Trump’s diatribes against undocumented immigrants from Latin America did not provoke universal outrage among American Latinos. On the contrary, Reuters reports that many Latino voters supported Trump’s hardline positions. About a quarter of Hispanic respondents to an Edison Research poll said most undocumented immigrants should be deported to the countries they came from.
‘It’s the economy…’
In retrospect, though the polls indicated a close race, Trump addressed issues that mattered more to the people. Harris campaigned for democracy and the protection of women’s abortion rights. Yet she was supported by just 53%of the women, according to the exit polls. As the political consultant James Carville, who was Clinton’s election strategist, said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” That’s what’s most important.
Throughout his campaign, Trump asked voters a key question: Are you better off than four years ago? (He was the president four years ago.)
And the resounding answer was “No”.
Reuters reported about two-thirds of voters considered the US economy in poor shape, compared with about half of 2020 voters. Some 46% said their family’s financial situation was worse than four years ago, compared with 20% who said the same in 2020.
The better off vs the less well-off
Harris’ positions on democracy and abortion played better with the better educated and the better off.
Harris was supported by 55% of college graduates, the same as Biden, and 51% of the people earning $100,000 or more, up from 41% for Biden. She was backed by celebrities like Bruce Springsteen, Taylor Swift, Beyonce and Oprah. Nobel laureates and leading economists signed public statements explaining why they supported Harris and how Trump’s policies were dangerous or harmful.
But the less well-off voted for Trump. Fifty-six per cent of the voters without college degrees supported Trump, as did 51% of those earning $50,000 to $99,000 and 50% of those earning less than $50,000.
A New York Times headline summed it up best: “Populist revolt against elite’s vision of the US.”
The inflation-hit workers without college degrees were not buying the learned economists’ explanations about how the American economy was growing when they were having to pay more for daily necessities.
They voted for Trump, who shared their anger and promised to make America great again.
A Bloomberg report described the extent of the anger and its cause.“Seventy-three per cent of voters were angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country, according to a CNN exit poll,” it said. “Adjusted for inflation, median household income barely budged in the first three years of Democrat Joe Biden’s presidency, rising only a cumulative 1.3% from 2020 to 2023. That nurtured middle-class nostalgia for the pre-pandemic period of the Trump presidency. Real median income was up more than 10% during Trump’s first three years in office, just before the pandemic hit.”
Voters voted as they always do, for better times, and the past — the first three years under Trump — looked rosier than the present, under Biden.
Harris often said, “We’re not going back.”
But the American voters have given their verdict: They are pining for the past.