Opinion polls show Labour in a commanding lead, the Tories heading for certain defeat after 14 years in power. But Labour’s base, more diverse than the Tories’, may not be enough to pull off that feat. Labour needs to capture constituencies that are whiter, older and have more homeowners.
Currently, the average Labour-held seat has 62 per cent British-born white constituents. On average, 53 per cent of the residents in Labour seats are homeowners, and 33 per cent are more than 50 years old. Labour is targeting an increase in all three categories. It reckons that, to gain power, it will have to win seats that are, on average, 80 per cent white, where 65 per cent are homeowners, and 39 per cent over 50.
Labour has to advance from the cities to the towns
For Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to enter No 10, Downing Street, his party has to spread out from the cities, where it’s strong, to the towns.
Only then will it be able to reach its targets.
The party has to forage further in view of the parliamentary overhaul.
Labour had 205 seats to the Conservatives’ 348 in the 650-seat Parliament when it was dissolved before the coming elections on July 4.
But boundary changes mean the elections will be fought in altered seats. Even the Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond in North Yorkshire has changed — it’s now Richmond and Northallerton. Only 77 constituencies remain unchanged.
Labour needs another 100-plus seats for absolute majority
Labour holds 200 of the new constituencies. Even if it retains them, it will have to win 126 more seats to gain an absolute majority.
A Labour comeback may be easier in its traditional strongholds – in the north, Midlands, and Scotland.
Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, said: “Labour are making a broad pitch to the country. That inevitably means they are trying to appeal to the average voter and not just their core voters. At the last election Labour’s voters were younger, more urban, and more likely to be graduates than the electorate as a whole. To win a majority Labour need to appeal to different kinds of voters from the ones they persuaded last time, while still hanging on to those who supported them before.
“The seats Labour need to win, and are the most winnable, are middle-ground or swing seats in the sense that they are the seats that if they swing to Labour then Labour will win, and if they don’t then the Conservatives will continue in power. If some do and some don’t – and there are no great surprises elsewhere – then we are likely to see a hung parliament.”
Source: The Guardian