Chen Gong, the founder of Anbound and its chief analyst says a Tiananmen situation is unlikely in Hong Kong.
“It is unlikely that this would be the outcome, because the cost will be too high for both Mainland China and Hong Kong.”
In an email interview with TISG he said the the priority for Hong Kong is to find a political solution.
“The priority in this issue is to locate possible political solutions. This is a difficult process. But it is also a process that must be sought. The best solution for political issues is using political means, and there is no other alternative.”
On whether China is tolerating the protests in order to appease western countries, he said:
“Hong Kong has a different system with mainland China. Protests and demonstrations were commonplace in Hong Kong, though previously the scale was not as huge as it is now. For that reason, most of the time the world did not seem to care about that,” he told TISG.
He added that as a financial center, Hong Kong definitely needs stability. The stability of Hong Kong is extremely crucial not only for Hong Kong itself, but also the situation in Asia.
“However, maintaining stability can be difficult now. I think in case the long-term problem of Hong Kong evolves into an unstable dilemma, this will pose the biggest risk.”
Nevertheless, he said the demonstration is not an indication the one-country-two-systems is failing.
“This is not necessarily the case. The situation in Hong Kong is still developing. The assessment of the results of “One Country, Two Systems” depends on the social reflection, especially the reflection in the future.
“After all, “One Country, Two Systems” has been in existence for 22 years, its not new and appeared today. (sic)” -/TISG