A recent shock poll by Stack Data Strategy suggests that Joe Biden is narrowly ahead of Donald Trump in both the electoral college and popular vote for the upcoming American presidential election.
The survey predicts Biden winning 287 electoral college votes to Trump’s 251. Despite Trump being favored by bookmakers, the MRP model used in the poll has proven reliable in recent elections. Biden’s path to victory relies on key battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where he holds a slight lead. However, the election remains highly competitive, with only a slim margin separating the candidates.
Although Biden is maintaining support in Midwest states that previously voted for Trump, the race remains highly competitive in key battlegrounds. The survey indicates consistent gains for Biden across demographic groups, but he struggles with younger voters and some Democratic base groups.
Biden leads Trump
Top voter concerns include immigration, inflation, and crime. The survey also suggests Republicans are poised to regain control of both the Senate and the House. The study interviewed 7,793 US registered voters online between March 27 and April 10.
Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy, said: ‘The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge.
‘The Midwest states that took Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it is effectively a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds – there is everything to play for and every vote will count.
‘The race for Congress is just as tight with the Republicans currently set to regain the Senate and retain control of the House. This is going to be a truly nail-biting contest.’
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