Pakistan ship in Bangladesh signals historic thaw, sparks concern in India

In a landmark development, Pakistan’s first direct cargo ship to Bangladesh in five decades docked at Chittagong port on November 11, signalling a historic thaw in bilateral relations that has raised concerns in India over potential strategic realignments in South Asia.

The vessel, sailing under a Panamanian flag from Karachi, marks a significant milestone in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties following the ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s regime earlier this year. Observers see this development as part of a broader shift under Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Dr Muhammad Yunus, towards enhancing relations with Pakistan, reports the South China Morning Post.

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, noted the strategic implications of this rapprochement. “It is clear that the interim government, due to its concerns about its partnership with India, is adopting a different approach to Pakistan,” he said.

The Pakistan High Commission in Bangladesh celebrated the arrival on social media, calling it a “major step in bilateral trade,” with potential to reduce transit times, streamline supply chains, and open new business opportunities.

Bangladesh-Pakistan relations

Tensions between Pakistan and Bangladesh date back to the 1971 Liberation War, during which Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, gained independence from Pakistan with India’s military support. Relations remained frosty under Hasina’s Awami League government, which rejected closer ties with Pakistan because the latter failed to apologize fully for the war.

The Yunus-led interim government has taken notable steps to improve relations, including scrapping mandatory 100% physical inspections of goods imported from Pakistan. Additionally, Yunus met Pakistani officials at the UN General Assembly in September, describing maritime links as “essential for reviving relations” and urging a “new page” in bilateral ties.

India, a key ally of Hasina’s administration and Bangladesh’s largest trade partner in South Asia, is monitoring these developments closely. Sanjay K. Bhardwaj, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, warned that India should not leave a vacuum for powers like China to gain influence in Bangladesh, which holds strategic importance in the Bay of Bengal region.

Strategic concerns

India’s apprehensions are compounded by historical suspicions. In 2004, a large arms shipment allegedly sponsored by Pakistan for an Indian rebel group, was intercepted at Chittagong port, fuelling Indian concerns over Pakistan’s intentions. Kugelman suggested that while the cargo vessel could signify merely economic cooperation, India might interpret the development as having deeper strategic implications.

The shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy extends beyond Pakistan. Under Yunus, the interim government has sought to repair ties with traditional Western partners, including the United States, while China, a key ally during Hasina’s tenure, has quickly adapted to the new political landscape.

Future implications

Experts suggest India must tread carefully. “The Bay of Bengal and northeast are critical for India’s strategic and economic interests,” said Bhardwaj. “India needs to be cautious not only about Bangladesh but also developments in the Maldives and Nepal.”

While Pakistan’s economic struggles may limit its leverage, the evolving dynamics in Bangladesh highlight shifting allegiances in South Asia. Analysts say the trajectory of its relations with Pakistan, India, and other powers will shape the region’s geopolitical landscape in the years to come.