Why Japanese PM’s snap poll gamble failed and LDP lost its majority

What a difference four weeks can make in politics, as the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba discovered to his cost. The election he precipitated as soon as he came to office this month has turned out to be his Waterloo.

His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for 65 of the 69 years since it was founded in 1955, lost its majority for only the third time in history in elections on Sunday (October 27). Elections he called a year before they were due. He was so eager to rush to the polls he called for elections the day before he assumed office on October 1. He wanted to catch the opposition unprepared and capitalize on his popularity, having been elected LDP leader with a more than 50 per cent public approval rating.

His gamble failed. The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, which had earlier held 279 seats in the Lower House of Parliament, won only 215 seats on Sunday — well short of the 233 required to form a majority. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), on the other hand, captured 148 seats, up from 98 previously.

What next?

Under the Constitution, the political parties now have 30 days to form a majority. So, Ishiba may still remain in office by winning the support of other parties.

The LDP has been out of power for only four years in seven decades. When it lost its majority in 1993, an opposition alliance ruled for a year before the LDP formed a coalition government with the socialists. Then when the LDP lost the 2009 election, the Democratic Party of Japan took over and ruled for three years before the LDP returned to power in 2012.

Sunday’s woeful election results for the LDP weren’t exactly unexpected. The influential Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported on Friday that the ruling coalition might not win a majority. Prime Minister Ishiba himself spoke of “powerful headwinds” buffeting the LDP for the first time after 2012.

The LDP’s almost uninterrupted rule since the 1950s is not due to any great love for the party. On the contrary, Ishiba was a popular politician because he was critical of the LDP. His popularity plummeted when, as prime minister, he became inextricably linked with his party.

According to the Japan Times, voters did not like his filling the Cabinet with his allies and old faces and holding a snap poll, breaking his own word that there would be no elections without consultations with the opposition. There were also divisions within the LDP which he failed to patch up.

Aggrieved voters

Ishiba faced an unhappy electorate aggrieved by corruption and the rising cost of living.

The voters didn’t take kindly to revelations last year that some LDP lawmakers were siphoning off money from fundraising events. While dozens of politicians were punished by the LDP, opinion polls indicate that many voters feel the response has been insufficient.

Ishiba, to his credit, declined to endorse several scandal-tainted candidates in the elections.

But days before the vote, a newspaper affiliated with the Japan Communist Party reported that the LDP had given campaign funds to branches headed by unendorsed candidates. The report said ¥20 million ($131,300) was given to local chapters led by such candidates. The story was picked up by the media and aroused public ire.

It added fuel to the fire of public discontent over rising inflation that was straining household budgets despite higher wages.

Unaffiliated voters

Ishiba also had himself to blame. He underestimated the fickleness of unaffiliated voters who tend to switch parties easily, political experts said

Hanako Omura, a professor at Kyoto University, said, “Prime Minister Ishiba’s decision to dissolve the lower house quickly indicates he did not pay attention to unaffiliated voters.”

“When voters supporting the ruling party are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, they are quick to withdraw their support. But a similar trend is not observed among opposition supporters. This is what history tells us about the unique nature of Japanese voting behaviour,” the expert told Japan Today.

Around 60 to 70 per cent of voters in Japan are not affiliated with any party, with the rest split between the ruling and opposition camps.

Here are key facts about Japan’s democracy ahead of the election, based on a Pew Research Center survey of 1,003 Japanese adults, conducted between January and March this year. The survey was fielded amid a slush fund scandal that resulted in the indictment of several LDP lawmakers.

Only 30% of Japanese adults had a favourable view of the LDP, while 68% had an unfavourable view.

Other political parties in Japan are also unpopular. Only 29% of Japanese adults have a favourable view of the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).

Most Japanese adults (56%) say they do not feel close to any political party.

Only 21% of Japanese adults say they support the LDP. Still, this is far more support than any other party receives. The next closest are the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party, at 4% each.

Only one in three Japanese adults says they are satisfied with the way democracy is working in their country.

Voter turnout

Japan is among the OECD countries with the lowest voter turnout, according to earlier PEW reports.

Kyodo News put voter turnout at 53.8 per cent, one of the lowest on record.

More than 40 per cent of the electorate is aged 60 or over, a globally unprecedented concentration of political power among people at or near retirement age, reports the Financial Times. Inflation has added to the senior citizens’ discontent as their fixed incomes make them more vulnerable to rising food and living costs.

They are also more likely to vote than others. Turnout rates among over-60s average around 64 per cent, against an average 47 per cent for everyone younger. For the past three elections, among Japanese in their 20s, it has never risen above 37 per cent.

Part of the problem, said analysts, was that younger voters do not see themselves represented in the field of candidates. A recent Nikkei analysis found that among those standing in Sunday’s poll, only 11.6 per cent were under the age of 40 and just 23.4 per cent were women.

“In one bright spot, a record 73 women were elected into Japan’s male-dominated parliament, surpassing 54 set at the 2009 election,” reported Reuters.
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