The "silver tsunami" in rural America

Stratton, Nebraska’s last lumberyard and hardware store, owned by Denis League, has joined the ranks of the departed businesses, leaving behind a trail of empty buildings and a community forced to travel over an hour and a half for essential supplies.

Now in his late 60s, League spent a year in a futile search for a buyer. The financial realities of the tiny western Nebraska community proved too daunting for potential successors. “You’re dealing with a pretty small base, and we’re just not getting enough business here to make it interesting to anybody else,” League lamented.

‘Silver tsunami’ invading rural America

This scenario is not unique to Stratton. Across rural America, small business owners, many of whom are 55 years or older, are contemplating retirement. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey reveals that more than half of business owners fall into this age bracket. With the youngest baby boomers set to reach retirement age in 2030, a “silver tsunami” is poised to reshape the landscape of small business ownership, particularly in rural areas.

Rural towns like Stratton are grappling with shrinking populations and the onslaught of the “silver tsunami”. Once home to over 600 residents in 1950, Stratton’s population has dwindled to less than half that number. This trend is mirrored across the rural Great Plains and Midwest as young people migrate to larger cities, leaving behind ageing populations. Ness Sandoval, a sociology professor at Saint Louis University, attributes this to the “brain drain” , where educated youth leave for college and do not return.

The impact of larger retailers like Walmart and Home Depot has also taken its toll on small towns, as local businesses struggle to compete. Sandoval, who grew up in Scottsbluff, Nebraska, has witnessed firsthand the demise of small-town commerce. He fears for the future of these communities as the older generation retires without young people to take their place.

Potential in upcoming retirements

Yet, amidst this gloom, there are glimmers of hope. Renee Wiatt, a research specialist at Purdue University’s North Central Regional Center for Rural Development, sees potential in the impending retirements. She envisions opportunities for younger individuals to take charge of established businesses, which have a higher chance of survival than newly started ventures.

Stacy Mullinex, programme manager at Advance Iowa, an organization that assists businesses with ownership succession planning, advocates for the employee ownership model. This model, where existing employees are trained to own and operate the business, offers a triple win: the owner finds a feasible buyer, employees gain increased wealth and job satisfaction, and the local community retains a vital business.

However, for businesses without employees to take over, the reality is that retirement age is being pushed back. Marilyn Logan, nearing 80 and the part-owner and manager of Marmaton Market in Moran, Kansas, has no plans to retire soon. Despite her desire to hire help and lighten her 60- to 80-hour workweeks, she faces the challenge of finding skilled, passionate individuals willing to stay in a small town for lower wages.

Similarly, Julie Dienst, whose family has run Vitale’s Italian Restaurant and Pizzeria in Macomb, Illinois, since 1980, is confronting the difficulties of succession. Her 86-year-old mother, the driving force behind the restaurant, is ready to retire, along with Dienst’s older brother. Yet, finding a buyer in a town facing a declining population has proven challenging.

The stories of Stratton, Moran, and Macomb are a microcosm of the broader struggle facing rural America.

As small business owners age, the question of who will carry the torch remains unanswered. The transition from one generation to the next is fraught with financial, demographic, and emotional complexities. Yet, it is within these challenges that the resilience and ingenuity of rural communities may find a path forward, ensuring that the heartbeat of small-town America continues to thrive.