In a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics, the long-standing alliance between India and Bangladesh has come under strain following the ousting of former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina. The situation has been further complicated by Hasina’s current residence in India and recent statements from Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus.
Sheikh Hasina, known for her pro-India stance during her 15-year tenure, is currently staying in India under unclear circumstances. Her presence has become a point of contention, with Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate now leading Bangladesh’s interim administration, calling on India to prevent Hasina from making political statements while in Delhi.
“If India wants to keep her until the time Bangladesh wants her back, the condition would be that she has to keep quiet,” Yunus stated in an interview with the Press Trust of India.
Calls for Hasina’s return and trial
Within Bangladesh, there are growing demands for Hasina to be brought back to face trial for alleged killings during anti-government protests in July and August. Mohammad Tajul Islam, the newly appointed chief prosecutor of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal, has announced steps to seek her extradition.
However, Indian experts believe extradition is unlikely. Riva Ganguly Das, a former Indian high commissioner to Dhaka, emphasized India’s commitment to its allies, stating, “If we don’t extend basic courtesy to our long-time friend, then why would anyone take us seriously as a friend in future?”
Diplomatic tensions and “Megaphone Diplomacy”
Yunus’ public statements have been met with disapproval in Indian diplomatic circles, with some describing it as “megaphone diplomacy”. Indian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that they are closely monitoring the situation.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition, has expressed concern over India’s apparent lack of engagement. “No Indian official has met us since 5 August [when Hasina’s government fell]. I don’t know the reason,” said Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, BNP’s secretary general.
The political instability has led to increased security concerns, with reports of attacks on religious minorities and Sufi shrines in Bangladesh. The release of convicted Islamist militants and a recent jailbreak have further alarmed Indian officials.
As both nations grapple with this diplomatic challenge, the future of Bangladesh-India relations remains uncertain. With China and European countries actively engaging with Bangladeshi opposition parties, India faces pressure to recalibrate its approach to maintain its influence in the region.