Former Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani says the United States has made a big mistake by launching a contest with China without a long-term, comprehensive strategy. Instead of obsessing over how to stop China from becoming the world’s leading power, Washington should consider how to adjust to such a scenario, he says in an interview with the South China Morning Post.
Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, acknowledges that the Biden administration has succeeded in stabilizing the relationship between the two powers over the past two years. However, President Biden’s policies, in some ways, are tougher than former president Donald Trump’s, he adds.
No clear US strategy
“The United States has taken various actions against China with no clear description of what the goals of these actions might be,” Mahbubani observes. He questions whether the US aims to overthrow the Communist Party, stop China’s economic growth, or isolate China as it did the Soviet Union—all objectives he considers unattainable.
Even if Washington competes with Beijing in some areas, it should cooperate in others for the benefit of both countries. He points at the need to fight climate change, which Biden has taken up as a priority but which requires cooperation with China.
Mahbubani argues that the US has not come to terms with the possibility of China becoming the world’s leading power and urges Washington to consider how it would adjust to such a scenario.
Why obsess over China?
The lives of Americans won’t be affected even if China became the world’s biggest economy and the US second-biggest, he says, recalling a Foreign Affairs article published by Prof Danny Qua, his successor as dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
“So why have this obsession that the goal should be to stop China from becoming No. 1?” asks Mahbubani. “Why not, instead, ask what kind of world we want to have when and if China becomes No. 1? How should the US cooperate and compete with China in that situation?
“Bill Clinton gave the answer, which I spelled out in my book Has China Won?” he adds. “He [Clinton] said that the US should be strengthening multilateral rules, multilateral norms, multilateral procedures, and multilateral institutions if it was going to become No. 2 in the world. Such advice by Bill Clinton is an example of clear strategic thinking. I don’t understand why the US does not realise that supporting multilateralism would be the best way to constrain, not contain, China.”
Mahbubani contends that China has been more rational in its approach, developing closer ties with countries worldwide through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
US can’t isolate China
The US cannot isolate China the way it isolated the former Soviet Union during the Cold War because China has “more substantive ties with more countries than the US”, he adds.
Mahbubani expresses concern about the US overlooking the importance of Southeast Asia, urging Washington to pay more attention to the region.
Despite Southeast Asia’s population of nearly 700 million and its strategic importance, the Biden administration has focused more attention on Australia, with its 27 million people, he says.
US losing ground in SE Asia
The US is losing ground in Southeast Asia, he notes, citing a recent poll showing that, for the first time, a majority of Southeast Asian respondents would choose China over the US if forced to pick sides. He attributes this partly to anger over US policies in the Middle East, particularly among Islamic countries in the region.
Looking ahead, Mahbubani advises the US to develop a consistent, bipartisan, long-term policy towards China that won’t change with each administration.
“I say this as a friend of the United States,” Mahbubani concludes. “It needs to step back and ask itself where it wants to be 10 to 20 years from now vis-a-vis China. Then, it needs to figure out what assets it has, what liabilities it has, and how it can enhance its assets and reduce its liabilities.”