It’s been a thousand days since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the strategic outlook has shifted dramatically since then. While Ukraine initially defied expectations by repelling Russia’s assault on Kyiv, it now faces mounting challenges as Russian forces make steady territorial advances in the east, controlling roughly one-fifth of the country, reports The Associated Press.
In 2024 alone, Russia has captured about 2,455 square kilometres of territory – less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war land. Though the gains are modest, they’ve come at a devastating human cost.
Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win, according to The Economist.
The fall of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine in February marked a significant breach in Ukraine’s defences, stretching Ukrainian forces thin as they simultaneously defended against threats to Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city.
In a surprising tactical shift, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, securing and maintaining control of hundreds of square kilometres. However, this tactical success hasn’t prevented Russian advances within Ukraine’s borders.
Manpower and morale challenges mount
Ukrainian forces face increasingly difficult odds on the frontlines. One soldier in the Donetsk region, speaking anonymously, estimated Russian infantry outnumber Ukrainian troops 10 to 1 in his sector. President Vladimir Putin claims 700,000 Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, though analysts suggest he would need an even larger force to significantly accelerate advances – a move that could risk domestic unrest.
The war’s trajectory increasingly hinges on Western support, particularly from the United States, which has provided over $64 billion in military aid. A delayed $61 billion aid package has left Ukraine’s ammunition stocks dwindling.
Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened its position through alliances with Iran and North Korea, with Pyongyang reportedly deploying 11,000 troops to the conflict zone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that North Korea could potentially send up to 100,000 soldiers.
Trump presidency could reshape conflict
President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming administration poses additional uncertainty for Ukraine. Trump, who has praised Vladimir Putin and criticized U.S. support for Ukraine, has claimed he could quickly end the war, though the terms remain unclear. “If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a cease-fire leads to a frozen conflict, Russia wants to secure as much territory as it can now,” says Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.
As winter sets in, Russia has intensified its aerial campaign against Ukraine’s infrastructure. A recent barrage marked the largest assault since August, targeting the country’s power system.
Human cost continues to mount
The war’s toll has been devastating. UN reports indicate over 12,000 civilian deaths and nearly 27,000 injuries, including more than 2,400 child casualties. Six million Ukrainians now live as refugees abroad, and the country’s population has dropped by a quarter since the invasion began. Military casualties on both sides are estimated in the hundreds of thousands, though exact figures remain classified.
Negotiating positions show no signs of convergence. Ukraine demands a complete Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories and NATO-level security guarantees against future Russian aggression. Moscow insists Ukraine must abandon aspirations to join the Western North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and withdraw from provinces Russia claims to have annexed. Analysts warn that a cease-fire based on current battle lines could set a dangerous precedent for Europe’s post-World War II order, suggesting borders can be redrawn through military force.
Meanwhile, the war continues to escalate. Ukraine used US long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time on Tuesday, having recently got permission to do so from the outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden. Ukraine said it struck a Russian arms depot about 110 km inside Russia, reports Reuters.
Putin’s nuclear threat
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike. The Kremlin announced that Putin had approved an updated nuclear doctrine— a document that governs how Russia uses its nuclear arsenal — including the declaration that Moscow could unleash a nuclear strike if attacked by a non-nuclear country that has the support of a nuclear state, reports NBC News.
“Yet it was telling that the reaction in Washington on Tuesday was just short of a yawn. Officials dismissed the doctrine as the nothingburger of nuclear threats,” says the New York Times.
However, Western military officials are privately expressing mounting concerns about Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian advances in the coming months, according to The Economist.
Ukraine undermanned, underarmed
There is concern over the deteriorating condition of Ukraine’s military forces. Ukrainian units are increasingly understaffed and exhausted, struggling to recruit replacements despite new mobilization legislation enacted in May. Western allies have suggested lowering the recruitment age below 25, but demographic concerns and political sensitivities have prevented this change.
Military analysts point to several critical factors in Ukraine’s declining position. A shortage of air-defence systems has allowed Russian surveillance drones to operate more freely, enabling precise missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian positions. Russia currently maintains a two-to-one advantage in artillery fire, forcing Ukrainian forces to rely more heavily on infantry operations, resulting in higher casualties.
Russia faces its own challenges, dedicating a third of its national budget to defence and grappling with high inflation. However, its military production capacity significantly outpaces Western efforts, producing three times as many shells as the EU. While Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 soldiers monthly, Ukraine struggles to maintain adequate force levels.
US military planners have notably shifted their strategic outlook. Pentagon officials have quietly pivoted from earlier goals of territorial reclamation to focusing on preventing Ukraine’s defeat. As one Pentagon insider noted, “At this point, we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive.”
The situation suggests a potential turning point in the conflict, with Western officials increasingly concerned that Ukraine’s military capabilities might deteriorate faster than Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort, potentially forcing Ukraine into a disadvantaged negotiating position in the future.