There’s something strange happening in the early 2024 election polls. Either there’s a big change in who’s supporting who, or the polls are messing up again.
The polls are saying that Donald Trump is getting more popular with younger voters, even beating Joe Biden in some surveys. But Biden is doing better with older voters compared to four years ago, even though fewer people like him now.
This is a big deal because usually, Democrats get lots of young voters, and Republicans get lots of older voters. But now, it seems there is a flip.
If this change is real, it will affect how both campaigns plan for the election in November. It’s been a long time since a Republican won over young voters or a Democrat won over seniors.
Young voters shift
But it could also mean that the polls are messed up again, just like they were in the last two elections. Maybe they’re not getting the numbers right for young voters, or for older people, or maybe both.
Some experts say the surveys are good at predicting what middle-aged white people will do but not so good with younger, older, Black, or Hispanic voters.
So, is the American voter changing their mind about who to support? Or are the polls just getting it wrong? Maybe a bit of both.
But remember, a lot could change before the election.
Here’s what the latest surveys are saying:
Last week, a poll by NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College showed Trump 2 points ahead of Biden with Millennials and Gen-Z voters. But Biden was still leading overall with voters 45 years and older.
A Fox News poll from last month showed Trump way ahead of Biden among voters under 30, by a huge 18 points in a one-on-one match, and by 21 points when including other candidates.
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