After enduring months of grim polling in the 2024 election race, President Biden bounces back and finally has a glimmer of hope.
Early indicators show a shift in the swing states, where former President Trump previously seemed poised for a decisive victory. Trump’s 34 convictions in his hush-money trial may have started to tilt the scales.
Five national polls conducted after Trump’s conviction show either no change or a slight uptick in Biden’s favour. A recontact survey by The New York Times/Siena College found that the race moved from Trump leading by 3 points to Trump leading by just 1. Although this type of study isn’t fully representative, it’s a notable trend.
Biden bounces back
Interestingly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that while most Republicans remain loyal to Trump, 10% of Republicans and 25% of independents are now less likely to vote for him. The Washington Post described the polling shift as “small but evident” towards Biden.
It’s still early days, and the full impact of Trump’s legal woes on the race remains unclear. Most voters seem unchanged by the conviction. Fresh polling from key swing states is still needed to paint a clearer picture. Before the conviction, Biden was trailing Trump by about 5 points in pivotal states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and by 6 points in North Carolina.
Biden trails Trump by less than 2% in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—critical battlegrounds where a shift toward Biden could tip the scales. Winning these states along with his strongholds from 2020 would give Biden the crucial 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
Biden’s biggest challenge comes from less-engaged voters, who are currently favouring Trump. However, he holds a lead among reliable, consistent voters, according to The New York Times‘ Nate Cohn. Some of the voters drifting towards Trump include demographics traditionally loyal to Democrats, such as young voters and Black men.
While Biden’s position in the polls is weaker than it was four years ago, there remains a narrow but credible path to victory. His fate may rest on the Midwest “Blue Wall” and the swing states’ response to Trump’s legal issues.
Sources:
2024 polls: Biden gains a hair after Trump conviction
America’s Most Powerful Pollster Has Some Doubts
Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict
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